During the early 1990s, the Southern Baptist Church of Alabama was the first to create mathematically-based estimates of the number of people that are expected to be sent to Hell. This was a practical tool that helped them determine where to focus their evangelism efforts and where it would be futile. Similar to a well-managed modern business, the estimates provide the church’s sales force with crucial information on how to allocate resources productively. Regional data on the number of existing and potential customers, as well as on those who are not worth the sales force’s time, are vital to the sales tactics of companies that sell cars, insurance, and cereal. In the same vein, the Southern Baptist Church of Alabama utilizes these estimates to further their goals and objectives.
It is assumed by the Southern Baptist Church of Alabama that almost all Southern Baptists in a given neighborhood are already saved, although a small percentage are deemed "damned idiots." The other evangelical and Baptist denominations have individuals that could still be saved or not worthwhile to engage. When it comes to Catholics, most are considered to be a lost cause. As for non-Christians who refuse to acknowledge Jesus, such as Hindus, Muslims, Jews, atheists, and Confucians – they are removed from the reach of evangelism.
The Southern Baptist Convention’s Home Mission Board conducted the math behind these estimates. They used a secret mathematical formula to estimate what percentage of each religious group will inevitably go to Hell. For example, X% of Southern Baptists, Y% of Episcopalians, Z% of Catholics, etc. The Home Mission Board puts great faith in these percentages.
In Alabama, it is easy to gather data on how many individuals within each faith live in each county. A group named the Glenmary Home Board from Ohio regularly produces a detailed survey that breaks down and analyzes every county in the US. The Southern Baptist Convention then fed the 1990 survey numbers into their formula, which produces the numbers that comprise the evangelistic index.
Unfortunately, the evangelistic index was not intended to be shared widely, much like any sales estimate. It was only meant for internal use within the organization. However, a reporter named Greg Garrison from the Birmingham News obtained a portion of the data, causing the newspaper to publish an article on page one that stated, "More than 1.86 million people in Alabama, 46.1% of the state’s population, will be damned to hell if they don’t have a born-again experience professing Jesus Christ as their savior, according to a report by Southern Baptist researchers."
The Southern Baptist Church of Alabama had actually made estimates of the number of people in every county in all 50 American states that are expected to go to Hell. However, only the Alabama data was ever made public. This leaves ample room for anyone to calculate the formula used for their own region and country, and in theory, determine which individuals are headed to Hell.
Marc Abrahams is the editor of Annals of Improbably Research, a bimonthly publication, and the organizer of the Ig Nobel prize.
